Q: Hello,
IMO the strike/lockout seems to be priced in and news about deadlines seem to be noise rather than anything substantive.
Given the potential impact of this on Canada business, in your opinion what are the critical incidents that would trigger a decline or spike - duration of either strike/lockout, back to work legislation. There really is no other viable alternative to rail so the country is over a barrel.
Thank you
IMO the strike/lockout seems to be priced in and news about deadlines seem to be noise rather than anything substantive.
Given the potential impact of this on Canada business, in your opinion what are the critical incidents that would trigger a decline or spike - duration of either strike/lockout, back to work legislation. There really is no other viable alternative to rail so the country is over a barrel.
Thank you
5i Research Answer:
We are not sure there will be any 'critical incidents'. Rather there will be lots of jaw-boning and threats by both sides, until either there is a collective agreement or back to work legislation. The last strike (2019) lasted eight days. Considering the importance of the industry, we would not expect the government to let this run more than two weeks before implementing at least some sort of agreement to at least get trains running while negotiations continue. The strike will have an impact on our already-weak economy, and we have an election year coming up.