Q: stock had a major dump today. looks like it will lose a contract. not clear how big. please explain why it dropped so much. brian
5i Research Answer:
Michigan Lottery has decided to go with another supplier, and PBL's contract expires in July 2026. PBL notes that the contract accounts for $9M EBITDA, pre-tax, annually (for the most recent 12 months). This compares to an estimated EBITDA this year (consensus) of $107M. We do not know the exact reason for the contract loss, but the stock reaction (down 35%) seems quite harsh in comparison to the EBITDA loss. States can be fickle, and PBL has lost contracts before. It remains profitable with more than $500M in revenue, and has a reasonably strong balance sheet. It will survive this event and this is likely a buy opportunity for longer term more aggressive investors.