The three control the Canadian market. Canadians pay some of the highest prices for their services. Their networks are vital infrastructure for businesses, government, and everything else.
I understand that capital investment is large and that interest rates have risen, however….. rates aren’t that high and look to be on the way down. Also, would it not take some time for increased borrowing costs to catch up with these companies?
Income….could it be any higher?
Is the problem excessive expenses? Forays into non-core businesses? Aren’t their problems easily solvable?
I’m having trouble seeing how the current low prices are not an incredible long term buying opportunity.
Comments?
Using BCE as an example, its growth has decelerated, volume growth consumes a large amount of capital, while pricing power is limited in the industry. But, Canada remains an oligopoly with little real competition, and largely, we do not believe its dividend is at any real risk in the medium term. One of the issues has been a combination of slowing growth, mixed with lower free cash flows relative to its dividend payments, resulting in increased borrowing at currently high rates. While a 5% interest rate may not seem objectively high, when considering the levels these companies were borrowing before, the rate of change is extremely high, and this is what impacts a company's bottom line.
We would like to see BCE and other telcos tighten up on spending and begin to improve their margins to fully secure current dividend payments, but debt levels have been rising and this has led to some concerns by investors. We do not like the negative momentum of the name, but we believe a lot of worries have been priced into the name and we feel it can be slowly accumulated by income investors with a long-term timeframe.