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  5. DIR.UN: I don’t have any REIT exposure at the moment and am looking at DIR. [Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust]
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Investment Q&A

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Q: I don’t have any REIT exposure at the moment and am looking at DIR.UN. Although the yield is good and revenue is growing fast, it doesn’t appear to have a great track record on growing either earnings or the distribution. Forecast EPS is expected to rise significantly from current levels, however the ’24 and ’25 forecasts are still only about 1/3 of what was earned in 2021/22. The payout appears to have not increased since 2013(!) What needs to change for this REIT to restore earnings to past levels and to grow the distribution? Recent high rates I expect were/are part of the problem but likely are not the entire story.
Asked by Paul on June 24, 2024
5i Research Answer:

Specifically due their corporate structure, we do not think investors should ever really expect REITs to show strong growth. Most capital is returned to shareholders so less capital is available for growth. There can still be some growth through occupancy increases and rent increases, but both can be limited at times for various reasons. Unit price growth (and fundamentals) are very much influenced by interest rates and sentiment. It is correct in that DIR.UN has not increased its distribution. Cash flow per unit has however increased from 90c in 2016 to an expected $1.10 next year. Unit price has doubled in that time, but units are down 12% this year and 0.3% over 52-weeks. The industrial sector has seen lots of consolidation over the years, and investors prefer it to residential and/or office REITs right now, certainly. Lower rates would help here. We think the company also has the ability to raise its distribution, based on 12 month operating cash flow ($225M) and 12-month distribution total ($134M).