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  5. AP.UN: How safe do you feel the dividend is for Allied, and the reasoning. [Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust]
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Q: How safe do you feel the dividend is for Allied, and the reasoning.
Thank You
Asked by John on June 24, 2024
5i Research Answer:

The main concerns here are debt, office vacancies and the payout ratio. Office vacancies remain high, and this limits the ability to raise rents. Debt is high, as is typical with most REITs. Payout ratio (12 months) is 99%, so there is no room for an increase, certainly. Interest expenses were $108M in the last 12 months, vs $294M operating cash flow. As rates decline, some of the pressure will be alleviated. AP.UN last raised its distribution in January 2023. But with a yield of 11.73% and units down 24% this year, investors are clearly concerned. Much here will depend on occupancy levels going forward. We would certainly not consider the distribution 'safe' in the sense of the word. The company can likely keep paying the current rate for some time, if it were to choose to. But something has to improve here for any long term sustainability at the current level. That being said, the very low valution (6X cash flow) likely reflects a lot of this risk already.