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  5. NA: Hi, Do you consider National Bank to be a good Canadian Bank to own, based on their flawless execution for a long period of time ? [National Bank of Canada]
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Q: Hi, Do you consider National Bank to be a good Canadian Bank to own, based on their flawless execution for a long period of time ? If so, after the recent sell off, what is a more prudent approach - To buy the * stock' now OR "Subscription receipts" to be listed, next week, which are likely to trade at a discount (what discount is reasonable ? ). considering cost to hold for 18 months period and a small probability of deal not going through ?

Would appreciate to elaborate pros and cons, Please !!

Thank You

Asked by rajeev on June 17, 2024
5i Research Answer:

NA has certainly outperformed the sector over the last five years. The receipts carry the same dividend, but conversion to shares is dependent on deal closing. We would probably expect about a 5% to 7% discount. So it becomes a question of the discount, vs the the likelihood of deal completion, combined with how NA does in general and/or without deal completion. Since NA shares have fallen quite a lot on the deal and issue, we would probably lean to the stock vs the receipts, because if the deal fails, this drawdown from the issue will likely reverse, over time. In other words, while there will be a discount on the receipts, the stock might recover the difference if the deal fails to close. Considering the extra regulatory risk in any bank deal, we would rather NOT bet on regulators. But we would be comfortable either way, really, but if becomes a question of whether an investor expects deal closing. This really, is the only main consideration of the two.