Costs have risen across the industry, and grades have fallen vs average. But we are not so sure we would call 30% YTD 'humdrum'. AEM remains cheap, with a good dividend and growth prospects. We think gold looks fine. Post-2008 stimulus, it did take gold a few years to move, and we think its post-Covid move is just beginning. Lower US rates (if/when) will help. Gold's inflation trade did not pan out well in 2022 but we do not think gold has been impacted that much by crypto. Investors still do not 'flock' to crypto during times of crisis and we doubt they will. In non-US currencies, gold has done much better. In the scenarios we would see gold and AEM moving under #1 and #3, and less so under #2 because of its hyper -sensitivity to interest rates in that scenario.
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