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  5. GFL: Gfl released earnings today and increased guidance for 2024. [GFL Environmental Inc. subordinate voting shares]
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Q: Gfl released earnings today and increased guidance for 2024. Could have please provide analysis and would you recommend a buy? Thanx.
Asked by Steve on May 03, 2024
5i Research Answer:

EPS was essentially flat vs expectations of a tiny loss. Revenue of $1.8B beat estimates by 1.2%. EBITDA of $455.7M beat by 3.4%. GFL's revenue, Ebitda and free cash flow exceeded consensus, reflecting benefits from last year's solid-waste divestitures and efforts to shed low-margin contracts. Reported revenue was flat due to the 2023 divestitures but included 4% organic growth in solid waste, where price increases offset volume declines, and which drove 160 bps of segment margin expansion. Environmental Services revenue fell 10% organically amid reduced emergency-response activity. Free cash flow topped expectations, though GFL's net leverage rose to 4.3x due to a $322 million increase in debt. The company used C$112 million for acquisitions and expects to spend C$600-$650 million on deals for the full year. However, net leverage is still seen approaching 3.65-3.85x by year-end. Guidance WAS increased, but only marginally. The stock is not cheap at 44X earnings, but we still think it is buyable.