skip to content
  1. Home
  2. >
  3. Questions
  4. >
  5. TFII: One more question to add for TFII. [TFI International Inc.]
You can view 2 more answers this month. Sign up for a free trial for unlimited access.

Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: One more question to add for TFII. This has been a favourite stock of 5i for some time. It seems to make the list whenever someone asks for 'recommendations'. It has been falling consistently since earnings came out. I realize it is up over the year but I expect a top 5i pick to be that. One thing I find missing from the 5i service package is follow-up reporting on the top portfolio stocks when there is a miss in earnings. If no member submits a question on the stock, there is no mention of it by 5i. In the case of TFII, if I have it right, the last 'report' put out by 5i dates back to April 2022. There have been lots of commentary in the 'question' section, but nothing that brings it all together. Now I realize its only one quarter miss, but many of your customers may not see it the way. They may view it as the start of a long downward spiral. So my question is: what rating would you assign TFII today? Should it better the average market going forward or will it tread water, and if so, for how long? Where do you see it in 3.6, 12 months? Does it still make the 'list' today? When will you issue a new TFII report? And finally, would 5i consider introducing a special quick report whenever a portfolio stock 'misses' a quarter?
Asked on May 02, 2024
5i Research Answer:

We did a TFII flash report last year.  An updated reported is due before the end of June. We are trying to get investors to focus on the long term. A report on every 'miss' would only encourage short term thinking and reaction. In addition, we get plenty of questions on every 'miss' and a report would be largely redundant to comments posted here. It is important to note that a miss may be related to a company positioning itself for the long term. A stock can decline without a miss, or still go up with a miss. Investors should not be convinced to transact just because a stock is volatile. This is pretty much the recipe for poor performance. Companies will miss numbers. Even those that never do can still see stock volatility, as investors simply price in high expectations which at times will not be met. TFII's chart over the past 10 years looks like a staircase, with some decent dips. It has missed five of the past eight quarters and we count 15 'misses' in the past decade. But even so, during this time the stock has risen 641% (from May 2014). Since the 2008 financial crisis, it has only seen three calendar years where the stock declined (2015, 2017, 2022). Essentially, then, any shareholder with a decent timeframe who sold on a 'miss' would have lost out on gains. In its entire history, other than in the financial crisis, the stock has never had two consecutive down years. Timeframe can be crucial.