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  5. STLC: With steel prices having moved up a fair bit over the last few months, I have been surprised at the continued weakness in shares of STLC. [Stelco Holdings Inc.]
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Q: With steel prices having moved up a fair bit over the last few months, I have been surprised at the continued weakness in shares of STLC. Now down to $40. The company paid a $3.00 special dividend in each of the past 2 years, and also pays a regular 42 cent quarterly dividend, so a trailing 12 month yield of 11.5%. Solid balance sheet. What do you think of it at this price, and is there an earnings forecast for 2024?
Asked by Dan on February 06, 2024
5i Research Answer:

STLC has bought back 33M shares in the past four years, and with special dividends it is certainly doing what it can to create shareholder value. The stock has, for reference, increased 10-fold from the pandemic low and has doubled+ since 2021. But it is down 20% this year. The CEO recently launched his own investment fund, and some might see this as a distraction for him. But the stock is cheap at 11X earnings. It had more than $400M in net cash at last report (September). Lower interest rates should help it. It looks like investors are worried about China growth and steel pricing. But, based on consensus, very strong earnings growth is expected this year (after a large drop from 2022 to 2023). We would be quite comfortable owning this and simply waiting for the next steel cycle. The dividend could still vary with earnings, but with its financial strength investors should be OK even if the next cycle takes some time.