Q: Cheers to 5i for the New Year!
Bloomberg December 29, 2023:
"Dollar bears - A weaker dollar is the expectation for 2024 of most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg amid forecasts that the Fed will lead the way among rich peers in cutting interest rates and that a soft landing in the US's economy will encourage investors to seek risk away from its shores. But strategists at JPMorgan Chase and HSBC are among those who reckon the greenback could still strengthen because the rest of the world will end up needing to reduce rates more to aid their economies. "
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-14/usd-will-surprise-again-with-strength-as-global-economic-slowdown-looms
Q For 5i: Thoughts on weak $USD thesis relative to $CAD in the short, intermediate, and long term? Do you believe the US FED will cut further or faster than BOC? How does the 5i team see CAD/USD going forward.
i.e. if owning both USD and CDR versions of the same equity, where could one consolidate into, etc.
Bloomberg December 29, 2023:
"Dollar bears - A weaker dollar is the expectation for 2024 of most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg amid forecasts that the Fed will lead the way among rich peers in cutting interest rates and that a soft landing in the US's economy will encourage investors to seek risk away from its shores. But strategists at JPMorgan Chase and HSBC are among those who reckon the greenback could still strengthen because the rest of the world will end up needing to reduce rates more to aid their economies. "
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-14/usd-will-surprise-again-with-strength-as-global-economic-slowdown-looms
Q For 5i: Thoughts on weak $USD thesis relative to $CAD in the short, intermediate, and long term? Do you believe the US FED will cut further or faster than BOC? How does the 5i team see CAD/USD going forward.
i.e. if owning both USD and CDR versions of the same equity, where could one consolidate into, etc.
5i Research Answer:
In the short term, USD will likely be weaker relative to the CAD as it has the lead on rate cuts. Over time though, we think with the stronger economy in the US, particularly relative to Canada, and with the bank of Canada eventually cutting alongside the US that the USD wil stabilize and/or strengthen fairly 'quickly'.