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  5. MEG: What energy company would you suggest at today's value- YGR, MEG or another name? [MEG Energy Corp.]
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Q: What energy company would you suggest at today's value- YGR, MEG or another name?

Don
Asked by Don on December 29, 2023
5i Research Answer:

YGR is currently valued at a 2.0x forward earnings. YGR has struggled significantly with a year-to-date decline of -53.4%. Outlook looks good for 2024 in terms of revenue and EPS growth, but 2025 forecasts display another drawdown. Revenues have declined this year, while the balance sheet has a high debt position at $95.6M with no cash. YGR is continuing to generate steady cash from operations at $90.5M in the last twelve months. YGR is very small and faces further risks with a market cap at $124.19M.

MEG is currently valued at 8.4x forward earnings. The stock has done well on a year-to-date basis with total returns of 26.8%. Oulook for EPS growth looks solid while revenue growth is expected to be marginal in 2024. A drawdown is expected in both EPS and revenue in 2025, similar to YGR. Revenues have declined this year, while balance sheet has a high debt position of $1144.9M but MEG does have some cash at $103.1M. MEG has been generating strong cash from operations in the last twelve months at $958.8M. 

We would suggest MEG over YGR today mainly due to its much larger size (market cap at $6.68B) and lower risk. Both companies are trading very cheaply, and financial risks are heightened for YGR having no cash.