Q: I saw this comment today.
We expect that its royalty interest will be upheld in international arbitration. Although not imminent, this royalty which accounts for 22 per cent of its net asset value represents excellent upside optionality once Franco Nevada and operator First Quantum Minerals has its day in court.
What are your thoughts on:
1) Has the market basically written off this royalty stream in FNV's stock price at this point?
2) Great buy at this point given bonus upside down the road when things hopefully resolve and they recover something.
3) Would you sell WPM to buy FNV given this? Though WPM has higher potential returns given its silver exposure i think.
We expect that its royalty interest will be upheld in international arbitration. Although not imminent, this royalty which accounts for 22 per cent of its net asset value represents excellent upside optionality once Franco Nevada and operator First Quantum Minerals has its day in court.
What are your thoughts on:
1) Has the market basically written off this royalty stream in FNV's stock price at this point?
2) Great buy at this point given bonus upside down the road when things hopefully resolve and they recover something.
3) Would you sell WPM to buy FNV given this? Though WPM has higher potential returns given its silver exposure i think.
5i Research Answer:
We do think the market has fully discounted the closing of the Panama mine. We are not so sure about a 'great' buy, but FNV will survive this event, has other assets, and is generally very well managed. Arbitration can be a long process, with no guarantees. In addition, it can be tricky to compensate a royalty on a mine that does not re-open, which is a possibility. We would consider FNV OK but might not expect much from it in the short term. We would prefer to keep WPM as of today.