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  5. HMAX: So a lot of people think that interest rates have peaked and are set to go down, thus the market reacts positively. [Hamilton Canadian Financials YIELD MAXIMIZER TM ETF]
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Q: So a lot of people think that interest rates have peaked and are set to go down, thus the market reacts positively. I believe that interest rates have peaked BUT will remain higher for longer. I anticipate that the market will initially react negatively to this but eventually will settle down to the new reality and continue to react to such metrics as earnings growth etc..
Recognizing that no one really knows the future, what would be the likely scenario ( short and long term ) for each of the sector ETF’s I am invested in : Canadian banks , American tech, American healthcare, Canadian large cap industrials/ utilities. Thanks. Derek.
Asked by Derek on December 18, 2023
5i Research Answer:

While it is likely true that central banks may be slow to cut rates, the bond market has already spoken. 10-year US yields have already dropped from 5%+ to 3.90% today, a very significant drop within a two month period. They might consolidate here, and everything now will depend on inflation, the economy and the job market. But whether central banks move or not, the yield curve shift will likely give companies more confidence. On balance, it should be good for most sectors. Interest sensitive sectors (utilities and tech) have already seen big moves. They may pause while investors await earnings (which are forecast to rise, by the way). Banks are more dependent on the economy, so we need to see how loan losses go. Healthcare has seen big moves and likely should continue to rise. Industrials may be mixed. Many have debt and interest costs year over year will still be high. But many are also growing fast, and are cheap. All in, we are not worried about many sectors. Some, such as consumer staples, may not do much, if investors use the sector as a source of cash for more exciting opportunities.