Its a smallish company with very choppy earnings , so any big misses and the stock will get hammered like many others in the growth portfolio.
For a double the stock has to get to around $100. In your view you must be looking at it getting to $200 or $300 to make enough money to garner the risk, considering its long history of being in the doldrums.
Thanks Gord
Hindsight is of course 20/20. The other point is that, a stock cannot go up 10-fold without doubling and tripling first. While historical financials are important, it is also important to not get anchored to the past stock price. Some of the best stock picks come from buying stocks that have 'already' gone up. This is especially true of small caps, where the market cap transition leads to a new group of investors looking at a stock specifically because it is larger. This can mean a valuation increase, even though the company is exactly the same. This may be true for HPS.A, which, even with its recent gains, is only 11X earnings. The stock is up a lot in the past decade, but we also note per-share earnings are up 10-fold from 2015 to 2024 estimates. Its share count has also not increased, which we like.