Bay Street Comments on Parkland Fuels, a 5i Research company

Aaron Hodson May 17, 2012
Parkland Fuel* (PKI : TSX : $13.60), Net Change: -0.09, % Change: -0.66%, Volume: 125,405

"Green Space Nutirent" just didn't have the same ring to it. Parkland Fuel has stayed under the radar despite climbing (up 7% year to date), with very little volatility and paying out a phat 7.5% yield. However, as yield protection becomes more topical, this story will likely garner more attention, particularly given the company’s continued focus on growth. The company recently hosted an investor day in which the main highlight was the unveiling of Parkland’s Penny Plan, which the company believes will allow Parkland to double its EBITDA to $250 million by 2016, through a combination of accretive acquisitions and a strict focus on cost-cutting and efficiencies. Of the $125 million in incremental EBITDA targeted by 2016, $55 million is expected to be generated from acquisitions and top-line growth. The company maintained its target of 10% market share of fuel distribution in Canada, which amounts to roughly 7.0 billion litres, up from 4.2 billion litres at the end of 2011. Canaccord Genuity Consumer Products Analyst Derek Dley notes that if he assumes an organic growth rate of roughly 2-3%, it results in organic fuel-volume growth of approximately 100 million litres annually. The remaining 2.3 billion litres will likely be generated through acquisitions. Dley notes that he expects Parkland to remain disciplined with its acquisition activities, with the company targeting transaction multiples in the 3.0-5.0x EBITDA range. The company also proven adept at generating meaningful synergies 12-24 months following an acquisition, which he expects to continue going forward. Parkland also believes that, through margin gains and cost-cutting, it can increase its profit per litre by a penny by 2016. This amounts to $70 million in incremental EBITDA. Of interest, for the first time in recent memory, the company hinted at the possibility of future dividend raises, commenting that, while it has no intention of reducing its dividend, the company may now look to increase the dividend over the course of the plan, with a longer term targeted payout ratio of 50% of distributable cash flow. Dley believes any dividend increases are likely to occur over the back half of the plan, with excess free cash flow directed towards acquisitions during 2012 and 2013.

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