We just wanted to highlight an interesting theme we have noticed recently: The S&P 500 has hit an all-time high and no one seems to even give it a second look! This is a very interesting contrast given these types of events have typically led to front-page covers in newspapers and magazines and a rolling out of champagne and party-hats. What is not to celebrate? After all, on average, if you are a long-term investor in the S&P 500, your portfolio value should be the highest it has ever been. Maybe it is simply that it is the summer and most investors are at the cottage right now, or maybe it is simply that investors continue to point at the next negative macroeconomic issue out of their control as a reason to not be invested. This is regardless of the consideration that markets continue to slog through bad news-after bad news headline. Concerns such as Brexit, Greece debt, recessions, Chinese volatility, oil declines, have all been overcome. Yet one simple fact remains, which is borne out in the chart below: The S&P 500 has never been higher and buy and hold investors who do close to nothing, avoid trading and transaction costs and taxes have more than likely reaped the benefits. With the proliferation of negative stories and concerns out there, we just wanted to highlight a few things to consider around this event:
1) Amid all of the negative news even in the last year, if you invested money at some point before today, the odds are good that you are a bit richer today.
Lesson: There is always something to be scared of out there but looking at a long-term chart, listening to the scare tactics appears to have always been the wrong decision.
2) Buy and hold is not dead
Lesson: Buy and hold could arguably be one of the only things that works consistently!
3) This continues to be one of the most hated bull markets with participants talking about bubbles, pricey valuations and macro risks all the way up to new record highs.
Lesson: Markets very well may be overpriced, there may even be bubbles in some pockets, but over the long-term, and as long as a long-term focus can be maintained, patient, diversified investors have done OK.
We do not know what will happen tomorrow but do truly believe that long-term investing with a focus on fundamentals and diversification is one of the best tools an individual has to retire comfortably. It is times like today when the power and importance of investing can easily be highlighted to new and old investors and in our minds, should be highlighted. So we did!
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I haven't looked back.
Rick
Elmer Sommerfeld, Moose Jaw, SK